In-depth report on the semiconductor equipment industry: Domestic breakthroughs are accelerating, ushering in medium and long-term investment opportunities

Release time:

2023-12-01 15:21

Source: Future Think Tank

1. Local breakthroughs have been made in key process equipment, and the construction of wafer production lines has driven domestic substitution.

1.1 Gradually improve local wafer manufacturing capabilities, and vigorously deploy storage/OEM/special processes and other fields 

Chip manufacturing capabilities are the key to realizing the independent control of the country's integrated circuits and even the information industry. Wafer manufacturing, packaging and testing, as well as upstream supporting equipment and materials are the foundation. At present, the first phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Fund has leveraged a total investment of about 500 billion yuan from local governments to support the development of all aspects of integrated circuits, among which wafer manufacturing and packaging and testing production lines are the focus. The second phase has also officially begun and is expected to drive tens of thousands of investments. 100 million capital, then storage, advanced process and other wafer lines will continue to focus on investment, in addition, support for equipment and materials will be increased. According to the current plan, about 45% of the world's new wafer lines from 2017 to 2020 are located in mainland China. In the upstream and downstream links supporting wafer manufacturing, local manufacturers will usher in good opportunities for substitution and development.

In terms of wafer foundry production capacity, global foundry revenue in 2017 was approximately US$62.3 billion. Local foundry companies such as SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor had revenue of approximately US$5 billion, accounting for approximately 8% of global foundry output value. There is huge room for improvement in OEM share. With the release of new production lines, mainland China's wafer manufacturing capacity will increase rapidly in the next three years. The wafer manufacturing output value of mainland Chinese companies is expected to increase to US$14.5 billion in 2022, with a compound growth rate of up to 20%, higher than that of mainland IC manufacturing in the same period. The total output value (including non-local manufacturers) has a compound growth rate of 13%.

In terms of wafer manufacturing processes, local OEMs are already strong in mature processes above 45nm/40nm, and are working hard to narrow the gap in advanced processes below 28nm. SMIC's 28nm process will be in mass production in 17Q4, 14nm will be in mass production in 2019Q3, and 12nm will begin customer introduction. Huali Micro broke through the 28nm HKC+ process at the end of 2019 and will mass produce 14nm in 2020. As far as 14nm is concerned, the gap between SMIC and TSMC/Samsung/GF is gradually narrowing. In terms of advanced processes, TSMC's 7nm chips currently account for 35% of revenue, while 5nm is expected to reach 10% in 2020. Samsung's 7nm has been mass-produced in 19Q4, and 5nm is expected to be mass-produced this year. Considering market demand and cost performance, GF and UMC gave up Below 10nm, specializing in 14nm/12nm process. Domestic foundry companies such as SMIC are relatively mature in 28nm and above process technologies and are expected to compete for market share. The 14nm process is expected to gradually increase in volume.

28nm is the technology node with the lowest cost per logic gate, and has obvious long-cycle process attributes. In 2017, the global scale of the 28nm process alone was about 11 billion US dollars, 28nm and above accounted for 76%, and the market space was about 47 billion US dollars. Domestic manufacturers are in The development potential of 28nm and above processes is huge. The 14nm process is mainly used in mid-to-high-end AP/SoC, GPU, mining machine ASIC, FPGA, automotive IC, etc. The market size is slightly higher than that of 28nm, but the overall competition is not fierce. In the short to medium term, SMIC, Huali Micro, etc. are competitive in 28nm and above processes and are expected to compete with GF and UMC. SMIC’s 19Q4 revenue was accounted for about 5% by 28nm, about 16% by 40/45nm, about 31% by 55/65nm, and 35% by 0.15/0.18um. 14nm contributed revenue for the first time, accounting for about 1%. 28nm and 14nm have greater room for improvement in revenue share. As the 28nm process gradually matures, 28nm and above can meet the process requirements of most IC products and are the main battlefield for domestic foundry companies. After the breakthrough of 14nm technology, it will gradually be mass-produced and shipped.

According to the plan, the total investment in new Fab lines in China is about 1.3 trillion yuan, and the production capacity after full production will exceed 2 million pieces/month, which is more than three times the current production capacity. 2018-2021 is an intensive period for production line investment and production capacity climbing in mainland China. 2020 will usher in the construction of many new wafer lines, including the launch of new projects, as well as the start of the second phase of construction or expansion of existing projects. Local semiconductor capital Expenditures continue to remain high.

Storage is the focus of the new line, with investment accounting for as high as 65%, of which local storage accounts for 48% (Unisoc Sunshine/Yangtze River Storage/Hefei Ruili/Fujian Jinhua), and non-local (Intel/Samsung/Hynix) accounts for 17%. The investment in local foundries such as SMIC/Huali Micro/Xinen/Guangdong Core accounts for 17%, non-local foundries such as TSMC/United Microelectronics/GF account for 11%, and the remaining 7% is Silan Micro, China Resources Micro, Jita and other power devices/special processes, etc. Among them, 96% are 12-inch line construction, and 8-inch lines related to power devices account for only 4%. The planning involves a total equipment investment of approximately 880 billion yuan. The estimated release time of equipment orders is based on the construction progress, corresponding to annual semiconductor equipment demand of approximately 769, 1551, 1504, 1719, and 142.7 billion yuan from 2017 to 2021.

1.2 Semiconductor equipment urgently needs to increase the localization rate, and the construction of wafer production lines drives local supporting opportunities 

Equipment belongs to the upstream of the semiconductor industry chain and generally needs to be ordered one year in advance. It is a leading indicator of future wafer manufacturing capacity supply. As the manufacturing process evolves to the advanced level, the requirements for equipment performance and stability are increasing, which has the characteristics of high barriers, high gross profit margin, and long verification cycle. The chip manufacturing process includes different links such as silicon wafer manufacturing, wafer manufacturing, and packaging testing. The corresponding equipment is silicon wafer manufacturing equipment (crystal growth, grinding, polishing), wafer front-end equipment (photolithography, glue development, etching) , PVD/CVD, oxidation diffusion heat treatment, ion implantation, CMP, cleaning, process control), wafer back-end equipment (wire bonding machine, sorting machine, probe station, dicing machine), auxiliary equipment (transportation and storage, gas pure system) etc.

In 2019, the global semiconductor equipment market was approximately US$57.6 billion, and the mainland market was approximately US$13 billion, accounting for approximately 22.4%, which is higher than South Korea's 18%. In 2019, the domestic production rate of pan-semiconductor equipment is about 16%, and the localization rate of IC equipment is about 5%. Among the semiconductor equipment imported from the mainland, the largest proportion is coating equipment, accounting for 32% (chemical vapor deposition 23% + physical vapor deposition 9%), followed by etching equipment 18%, followed by wire bonding machines 12%, and the remaining equipment such as oxidation diffusion furnaces, photolithography machines, ion implanters, chemical polishing machines account for about 10%, 9%, 4 %, 4%. Coating and etching equipment, which accounts for about 50% of the total, is the main area for domestic substitution, and related companies are expected to benefit from this.

The technology of domestic semiconductor equipment companies has gradually matured. In addition, in recent years, the construction of local wafer production lines has increased, and equipment companies in all aspects have experienced rapid growth. Semiconductor equipment companies such as Northern Huachuang, China Microelectronics, Zhichun Technology, Changchuan Technology, Jingce Electronics, Jingsheng Electromechanical, Huaxing Yuanchuang, Shengmei Semiconductor, Yitang, etc., the compound growth rate of revenue from 2016 to 2019 basically exceeded 30%. The next three years will be a period for the construction of many wafer lines in mainland China, with the average annual equipment demand reaching 100 billion yuan. In the medium to long term, by 2021, mainland China's semiconductor equipment demand is expected to account for 25% of the world's demand, surpassing South Korea and Taiwan's 22%, becoming the world's largest demand region. Domestic equipment manufacturers are expected to usher in local substitution opportunities in some links.

Judging from the breakdown of wafer line investment, investment in semiconductor equipment accounts for 75%-80% of the total investment in production lines. Among equipment investment, the wafer manufacturing link accounts for about 80%, the packaging link accounts for about 6%, and the testing link accounts for about 9%. Among wafer manufacturing related equipment, photolithography/coating/etching and other links account for a high proportion, accounting for 24%, 20%, and 16% respectively, while ion implantation, process inspection, and wafer processing account for 4% and 8%. ,8%. Considering the market space and technology maturity, domestic manufacturers in the etching/coating link have great potential for substitution, and China Microwave Co., Ltd., the domestic leader in etching equipment, is expected to increase its share.​ 

With the construction of mainland wafer production lines, local wafer foundry production capacity is expected to increase by three times, and the market share of mainland wafer manufacturers will increase, which will eventually drive the "symbiotic growth" of local upstream supporting equipment companies. Taking Japan as an example, statistics on changes in the market shares of the manufacturing and equipment industries show that the correlation between the two is very high. With the rise of Japanese manufacturing companies in the global industrial chain, Japanese equipment companies are enjoying supporting opportunities due to their localization advantages. Mainland China's domestic equipment manufacturers are also expected to copy the same upward path.

We have counted the wafer lines planned and constructed in mainland China from 2017 to 2021, combined with the production progress of each production line and the proportion of equipment investment in each link, to estimate the total demand for semiconductor equipment brought by the new local production lines. (Only current disclosed production line plans will be considered) 

Wafer manufacturing link 1: The space increment of photolithography machines, electron beam exposure, glue development, and glue removal equipment in the photolithography link is 127.6 billion/6.3 billion/31.4 billion/4.9 billion yuan; dielectric etching in etching equipment , silicon etching, metal etching, compound semiconductor etching, and electron beam etching, corresponding increments are 53.5 billion/51.3 billion/4.5 billion/1.1 billion/1.1 billion; PVD, ALD, CVD/LPCVD, and PECVD in coating equipment , The space corresponding to VPE is 28.7 billion/8.5 billion/28.7 billion/27.8 billion/12.3 billion.

Wafer manufacturing link 2: The space for high current injection, medium intensity ion implantation and high energy ion implantation in ion implantation equipment is 15.6 billion/8.9 billion/3.4 billion yuan; optical patterning wafer inspection and photomask in wafer inspection equipment The corresponding increments of inspection, defect detection and classification, and critical dimension inspection are 16.7 billion/7.8 billion/3.9 billion/5 billion yuan; the increments of spray cleaning tables and automatic cleaning tables in cleaning equipment are 38.1 billion/10.2 billion yuan .

Packaging and testing links: packaging equipment wire bonding machine, die bonding machine, photolithography/SOD/plastic sealing, dicing machine, placement machine, packaging and cutting machine space is 13 billion/5 billion/5.4 billion/3.8 billion/2.5 billion/25 100 million yuan; the space for test equipment probe stations, sorting machines, and SOC testing machines is 10.2 billion/11 billion/28.2 billion yuan.

At present, domestic equipment manufacturers are supplying 28nm production line equipment in batches, and 14nm is gradually being verified by customers. Northern Huachuang's 28nm etching machine is installed in SMIC and Huali Micro; 28nm PVD is designated as the 28nm process Baseline machine by SMIC's Beijing plant, and AI Pad PVD is used in key process links of Wuhan Xinxin's NAND production line; 12-inch single Wafer cleaning machines, oxidation furnaces, single-wafer annealing equipment, etc. have all been stationed in SMIC's 28nm production line; 14nm plasma silicon etching machines, single-wafer annealing systems, and LPCVD have successfully entered mainstream foundries; a variety of 10nm equipment is under research and development. AMEC's ​​16nm dielectric etching machine has been operating in many production lines, and it is the only mainland equipment manufacturer to enter the list of TSMC's 7nm/5nm process etching equipment. In addition, ICP etching equipment such as 1Xnm DRAM and 3D NAND chips with more than 128 layers are also in use. R&D. At present, the 14nm process of domestic foundries has gradually entered mass production, and it is expected to gradually increase the proportion of domestic equipment in the future. We are optimistic about the increase in the share of domestic equipment in the 28nm production line with long-cycle node attributes. SMIC/Huali Micro has already acquired the 14nm process capabilities and is expected to gradually increase its mass production capacity. Equipment manufacturers that have deployed 14nm in advance are expected to take the lead.

1.3 Key process equipment are all deployed locally, and the share of advantageous links is expected to increase while disadvantageous links are expected to gradually break through. 

The global semiconductor equipment market is highly concentrated, with the top five equipment manufacturers accounting for about 80% of the total. The revenue of the top five equipment manufacturers in 2019 is Applied Materials (AMAT) 13.5 billion, ASML 12.8 billion, Tokyo Electronics (TEL) 9.6 billion, Lam (LAM) 9.5 billion, and KLA (KLA) 4.7 billion In U.S. dollars, the corresponding market shares are 21%, 20%, 15%, 15%, and 7%. ASML has relatively single products and almost monopolizes the photolithography machine market, while AMAT leads the market in etching, PVD/CVD coating, heat treatment, ion implantation, CMP and other aspects, and has the most abundant product lines.

Semiconductor equipment is mainly divided into front-end wafer equipment and back-end packaging and testing equipment, and the localization rate of some links has increased significantly. Among the wafer front-end equipment, etching machines (USD 14 billion, accounting for 25%), CVD/PVD/ALD coating machines (USD 12.5 billion, 23%), and photolithography machines (USD 12.5 billion, 20%) are The top three equipment types in terms of market size are coating, developing and removing glue (USD 2.5 billion, 4%), heat treatment (USD 1.8 billion, 3%), ion implantation (USD 1.6 billion, 3%), and CMP (USD 2 billion). USD, 4%), cleaning (USD 3 billion, 6%), and measurement equipment (USD 6 billion, 10%). The main equipment for back-end packaging and testing includes testing machines (USD 3 billion, 6%), probe stations (USD 1 billion, 2%), and sorting machines (USD 900 million, 2%). Among them, looking at the domestic demand for local production line equipment, etching (20%), PVD (10%-15%), heat treatment (15%-20%), cleaning (20%), CMP (15%), glue removal equipment (80%), etc. have higher localization rates than other links, both higher than 15%; while photolithography machines, glue coating and development, CVD, ALD, ion implantation, and measurement equipment are all Less than 5%. The local matching rate of testing machines, sorting machines, and probe stations in the back-end packaging and testing process is also less than 5%.

The first phase of the large fund only accounts for 4% of its investment in equipment and materials, with a focus on supporting high-quality equipment companies in some links. The second phase is expected to increase the scope and intensity of support for semiconductor equipment. Among them, wafer front-end equipment is responsible for etching, coating, cleaning, ion implantation, and measurement processes related to Northern Huachuang, China Microelectronics Corporation, Shenyang Tuojing, Shengmei Semiconductor, Wanye Enterprise (Keshitong), Shanghai Jingcei and Shanghai Lirui have made equity investments, and as of now, their shareholding ratios are 10.03%, 17.45%, 35.3%, 4.58% (common shares), 7%, 15.4%, and 12.12% respectively. For back-end sealing and testing equipment, Changchuan Technology holds 9.85% of the shares in the testing and sorting process. As of now, no major fund in the lithography-related lithography machine, glue coating and development, and glue removal equipment sectors has yet to invest in it. Shanghai Microelectronics, Shenyang Xinyuan, Yitang, etc. are expected to receive support in the future. In other cleaning and testing areas, high-quality targets such as Zhichun Technology and Huafeng Measurement and Control are also expected to have opportunities.

From a technical level, the localization level of etching, coating, and cleaning equipment is close to that of international mainstream manufacturers. It is used in batches in advanced 28/14nm wafer foundry production lines and 3D NAND and other storage production lines. China Microelectronics’ dielectric engraving equipment The etching machine has even entered TSMC's 7nm/5nm production line. However, there is a certain gap between photolithography, ion implantation, and measurement equipment compared with the international mainstream level. Domestic lithography machines currently have a process node of up to 90nm, and have made breakthroughs in special process lines such as power; ion implantation has mainly made breakthroughs in photovoltaics and 45-22nm low-energy large beams; measurement equipment mainly focuses on the measurement of key dimensions such as film thickness superior. However, other packaging and testing equipment such as probe stations, testing machines, sorting machines, etc. still have a gap in advanced applications such as digital chips.

Regarding the opportunities for localization of semiconductor equipment, we believe that the ease of breakthrough is as follows: (1) In terms of products, power devices > digital analog devices > logic chips; (2) In terms of processes, featured processes > mature processes (28nm and above) >Advanced process; (3) Size, 4-6 inches>8 inches> 12 inches.

Judging from the latest equipment bidding data for local wafer lines, in 2019, the procurement rate of Jita Semiconductor's localized equipment represented by the 8-inch featured process was 34%, which is higher than the rate of Huahong Wuxi's 12-inch mature process line (90-65/55nm) The localization rate of 27% is higher than the 9% of Huali Micro's 12-inch advanced process (90-65/55nm) production line. In 2019, because Yangtze Memory is in the critical stage of first-phase mass production, the overall focus is still on breakthroughs in storage processes, and the localization rate of equipment is as low as 7%. The localization rate of newly purchased equipment during the expansion of production in 2020 has increased significantly, improving to 15.7%.

In terms of specific equipment links, the localization rate of etching, coating, oxidation diffusion heat treatment, cleaning and other links is relatively high, basically exceeding 15%; the localization rate of photolithography, ion implantation, process technology, testing and other equipment is relatively low, not More than 5%; Shanghai Microelectronics has achieved a breakthrough in the supply of lithography equipment at Jita's 8-inch specialty production line. As Yangtze Memory's process maturity improves, the localization rate of equipment procurement for 3D NAND production lines has increased from 2.2% in 2017, 9.6% in 2018, and 7.2% in 2019 to 15.7% in 2020. Among them, the localization rate of etching equipment, cleaning equipment, grinding and polishing equipment, oxidation and diffusion equipment, etc. has increased significantly in recent years.

Vigorously developing wafer production lines will bring supporting opportunities to local equipment companies. Advanced/mature process production lines include: SMIC North (12-inch 28nm), SMIC Southern (12-inch 14nm), Huali Integration Phase II (12-inch 28/14nm); Huahong Wuxi (12-inch 90-65nm), Silan Micro Xiamen (12-inch 90nm), Jinghe Integration (12-inch 180-55nm), IWC Chongqing (12-inch 90nm), Yuexin and Qingdao Xinen (12-inch 180-130nm).

Featured process lines: SMIC Shaoxing/Ningbo/Tianjin (8 inches), Silan Micro (8 inches), Jita Shanghai (8 inches), Yandong Micro Beijing (8 inches), etc. 8-inch wafer foundry involves power, analog, CIS, power management and other products. The downstream demand is stable, and the superimposed 8-inch production capacity is limited. Local companies are competitive in specialty processes and are expected to see an increase in market share and drive equipment related to specialty processes. revenue increase.

Storage production line: Yangtze Storage and Hefei Ruili will enter a production capacity ramping period in 2020, driving a surge in equipment demand. 19 Q4 Yangtze Memory's production capacity is 20,000 pieces/month, which will be expanded to 50,000 pieces/month by the end of 2020, to 100,000 pieces/month by the end of 2021, and to 300,000 pieces/month in 2023. Hefei Ruili's first-phase production capacity is 120,000 pieces/month, currently 20,000 pieces/month, and will reach 40,000 pieces/month in 2020. Subsequent expansion plans will be carried out depending on the situation. In addition, Tsinghua Unigroup plans to set up a DRAM production line in Chongqing and a storage base in Nanjing/Chengdu. As a major category of standard products, storage is cost-sensitive, requires less customization, and has lower equipment requirements than digital logic chips. Local storage companies have clear long-term plans, and equipment companies are expected to continue to benefit.

Domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers have gradually broken through different types of local wafer production lines in their respective advantages. The share of China Micro's dielectric etching machines in Huali Micro, Huahong Wuxi, and Yangtze Memory remains at around 15%; the share of Northern Huachuang's oxidation/diffusion/heat treatment equipment in the storage production line reaches 32%, and in Huali Micro and Huahong Wuxi's shares are 6.3% and 3.8% respectively, while the relative shares of etching and thin film deposition are relatively small; Ame Semiconductor's cleaning equipment share is stable, maintaining 14%-18% in the three wafer lines respectively; Huahai Tsingke's CMP The equipment share in Huahong Wuxi and Yangtze Storage is 22.2% and 14.9% respectively, and in Huali Micro is 9.1%; other companies are Yitang, Shenyang Tuojing, Shenyang Xinyuan, Beijing Zhongkexin, Shanghai Ruili, and Shanghai Jingcei. Heat treatment equipment, coating equipment, coating and development equipment, ion implantation, film thickness measurement and other equipment occupy a certain share, and there is considerable room for improvement.

Local semiconductor equipment manufacturers have basically achieved full coverage in photolithography, etching, coating, oxidation diffusion, cleaning, polishing, ion implantation and other aspects. More and more listed companies and non-listed companies are investing in the field of semiconductor equipment. Among them, there are 4 exposure/photolithography companies, 10 coating and development companies, 9 CVD companies, 6 PVD companies, 6 other film forming equipment companies, 10 dry etching equipment companies, and wet etching equipment companies. There are 12 corrosion equipment companies, 8 heat treatment equipment companies, only 2 CMP equipment manufacturers, only 2 ion implantation equipment manufacturers, 10 measurement and testing equipment manufacturers, and 4 storage and handling equipment manufacturers. With policy and financial support, more and more equipment companies are expected to grow and develop, driven by the demand for local wafer equipment.

2. Some aspects of wafer manufacturing equipment are competitive, and share breakthroughs have been achieved in other aspects.

2.1 Lithography link: There has been an initial breakthrough locally, but there is still a big gap between the international level and the 

2.1.1 Lithography machine equipment: packaging/LED lithography machines are relatively mature, but there is still a gap in IC front-end/panel lithography machines 

IC front-end wafer manufacturing is the core link of the integrated circuit industry chain. Wafer manufacturing includes photolithography, etching, ion implantation, film growth, diffusion, polishing, annealing, detection and other major links, of which the photolithography link is its core. A photolithography machine is a large-scale precision mass-production processing and manufacturing equipment that transfers pre-designed chip patterns onto silicon wafers or other material substrates. The photolithography or exposure accuracy of the photolithography machine directly determines the node of the entire semiconductor manufacturing process. Its high price also makes the photolithography machine the most important component of investment in the entire semiconductor manufacturing production line.

In the actual photolithography process, it is necessary to ensure nanometer-level exposure accuracy and high productivity to achieve sufficient economy. The photolithography machine equipment will be very complex, and its sub-systems and component manufacturing engineering It is extremely difficult to implement. Typical lithography machine equipment includes: ultra-low aberration projection objective lens system, high-precision uniform light exposure system, precision mirror scanning or stepping mask stage system, high-speed silicon wafer transfer system, nanoscale alignment system, precision focusing and leveling system, large load high-precision high-speed workpiece stage system, sub-nanometer dual-frequency laser interference displacement measurement system, active vibration isolation system, precision temperature control system and distributed multi-level complex machine control system. According to application fields, it can be divided into IC front-end wafer manufacturing, IC back-end advanced packaging, flat panel display and high-brightness LED. Among them, IC front-end and back-end wafer manufacturing belong to the field of integrated circuits. Whether it follows Moore's Law or surpasses Moore, the resolution of IC front-end lithography equipment and the improvement of IC back-end advanced packaging technology all rely on lithography accuracy.

The IC wafer front-end manufacturing lithography process includes: first placing it in the mask plate library, placing it on the mask stage through the mask transfer system, transferring the wafer to the workpiece stage through the silicon wafer transfer system, and focusing and leveling the silicon The wafer is focused and leveled, the alignment system aligns the silicon wafer, and then the workpiece stage, mask stage, and exposure system complete the scanning or step-by-step exposure of the entire wafer under the control of the whole machine control system. After the exposure is completed, Silicon wafer transfer system comes out.

As resolution requirements continue to shrink, lithography machines have gone through 5 generations of product development based on improvements in the light sources used. The main indicators of lithography machines are resolution, overlay accuracy and productivity. The future development trend will mainly focus on the above three indicators. The illumination wavelength is getting shorter and the numerical aperture of the objective lens is getting larger, which makes the resolution capability of the lithography machine continue to improve. The current EUV resolution reaches 13nm, and 7nm process manufacturing can be achieved through multiple exposures, and it is moving towards 5nm and 3nm technology nodes. At the same time, overlay accuracy continues to improve with resolution and productivity is continuously optimized, resulting in continued reduction of overall chip production costs.

In terms of the global lithography machine market, ASML is the dominant player. Its lithography machine shipments account for more than 70% of the world's share, especially in the fields of EUV lithography machines and ArF immersion lithography machines, which are basically a monopoly; Canon and Nikon's lithography machine shipments share a total of about 30%. It is mainly concentrated in the field of flat panel display, occupying a certain share in I line and KrF and ArF lithography machines; while Ultratech in the United States mainly produces back-end packaging and LED packaging lithography machines. The value of a single unit of packaging and LED lithography machines is relatively higher than that of crystal. The round front channel and flat panel display lithography machines are relatively low, and the barriers to competition are also relatively low.

ASML was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in the Netherlands. It is one of the world's largest semiconductor equipment manufacturers. It provides photolithography machines and related services to most integrated circuit manufacturers in the world. It has the world's most advanced photolithography technology level and its main core Competencies are dual workpiece stages, immersion lithography applications and EUV lithography. The EUV lithography machine produced by ASML can meet the 5nm/7nm process. According to ASML’s annual report, its sales of IC front-end wafer manufacturing lithography machines from 2015 to 2017 were 169, 157 and 198 units respectively, and it has an absolute monopoly in the IC front-end manufacturing field. In 2019, ASML delivered 26 EUV lithography machines, far exceeding the 18 units in 2018. It is expected to deliver 35 EUV lithography machines in 2020, and the delivery volume will reach 45-50 units in 2021, which is about twice that of 2019. , a single unit sells for more than 100 million US dollars.

Looking at the layout of different lithography fields, four companies, ASML, Nikon, Canon and Shanghai Microelectronics in mainland China, have wafer front-end capabilities. In terms of back-end packaging/LED lithography, Shanghai Microelectronics, Austrian EVG, German SUSS, American Veeco, American Rudolf, etc. have product lines covering it. In addition to Shanghai Microelectronics, there are also 48 Institutes of China Electronics Technology and Technology Research Institute of China Electronics in China. 45 institutes and others participate in the research and development of wafer front-end lithography machines. Other local photolithography-related manufacturers mainly focus on mask alignment, electron beam exposure, laser direct writing and other links, including Shadowspeed Optoelectronics, Jinsheng Micro-Nano, Xinnuo Technology, Hefei Xinqi, etc. Mainland companies involved in core lithography machine exposure system components include Guowang Optics, Changchun Guoke Precision Optics, Shanghai/Changchun Institute of Optics and Mechanics, etc. Mainland manufacturers of lithography duplex workpiece tables include Beijing Huazhuo Jingke, which became the company after ASML. The second company in the world to master the core technology of dual workpiece tables.

As advanced processes evolve from 10nm to 5nm/3nm nodes, the proportion of photolithography value in logic chip wafer manufacturing has increased from 25% to 35%+, a significant increase. The evolution of DRAM from 1X to 1A will also drive the lithography value share to increase from 24% to 27%. From the equipment side, EUV and ArFi lithography machines account for about 80%, among which the proportion of EUV lithography has increased significantly. Domestic manufacturers are expected to gradually enter the market from ArF, KrF, I-Line lithography machines, etc.

Shanghai Microelectronics: It is the first company in China and one of the few companies in the world to master mid-to-high-end lithography machine technology. Its products are widely used in the integrated circuit industry chain, IC front-end wafer manufacturing, IC back-end advanced packaging, flat panel display and high brightness. LED and other fields. In the field of IC front-end manufacturing, we have completed the development and online verification of my country's first 90nm node ArF lithography prototype, and are currently developing a next-generation immersion lithography machine for the 28nm process node; IC back-end advanced packaging lithography machines dominate the mainland market position, and also leads the global market; in the field of flat panel display, the company's exposure machines (lithography machines) have entered the local panel production line; in the field of high-brightness LEDs, the LED lithography machines developed by the company are in a dominant position in the mainland and global markets.

2.1.2 Glue coating and developing equipment: The overall localization rate is less than 5%, and Xinyuan Micro/Shengmei occupies a certain market in China. 

The photolithography process flow is: dehydration baking → spin coating → soft baking → exposure → post-exposure baking → development → hard film baking → development inspection. The steps are as follows: (1) Spin coating: Apply liquid phase photoresist material on the silicon wafer by rotating; (2) Soft baking: After coating, soft bake the silicon wafer to remove residual residue in the photoresist. Solvent to improve the adhesion and uniformity of the photoresist; (3) Exposure: Using ultraviolet light, the photoresist that is not blocked by the mask undergoes an exposure reaction to realize the transfer of the circuit diagram from the mask to the silicon wafer; (4) Post-exposure baking: Bake the exposed silicon wafer at a certain temperature in order to reduce the influence of the standing wave effect and make the chemical reaction more complete; (5) Development: Use chemical developers to dissolve the photolithography caused by exposure. The glue can dissolve the area, so that visible graphics appear on the silicon wafer, and distinguish the areas that need to be etched and the areas protected by the photoresist; (6) Hard film: heat and dry the developed photoresist to promote the photoresist Adheres firmly to the silicon wafer and improves its strength; (7) Development inspection: distinguishes those wafers that have a low probability of passing the final mask inspection, provides process performance and process control data, and sorts out wafers that need to be redone.

Glue coating and development equipment is a glue coating, baking and development equipment used in conjunction with a photolithography machine in the photolithography process, including a glue coating machine (also known as a coating machine, a glue leveling machine), a glue spraying machine and a developing machine. In early integrated circuits and lower-end semiconductor manufacturing processes, such equipment was often used alone (Off Line). As the automation level of integrated circuit manufacturing processes and customers' requirements for production capacity continue to increase, on large-scale production lines of 200mm and above, such equipment generally operates in-line with photolithography equipment to form supporting wafer processing and photolithography equipment. The engraving production line cooperates with the photolithography machine to complete the precise photolithography process.

According to different process steps, glue coating and development equipment can be divided into front glue coating and development equipment and back glue coating and development equipment. The glue coating and development equipment completes the photoresist coating, curing, development, hardening and other processes of the wafer, which directly affects the formation of fine exposure patterns in the photolithography process. The pattern quality of the development process has an important impact on subsequent etching, ion implantation and other processes. The results of graphics transfer also have profound consequences. According to different process links, glue coating and development equipment can be divided into front-end glue coating and development equipment (wafer processing) and back-end glue coating and development equipment (packaging testing). The front-end coating and development equipment is related to the photolithography process. The photolithography process can be divided into g-line, i-lina, KrFi (immersion), ArF, ArFi (immersion) and EUV. ArF and KrF coating and development equipment The proportion is relatively high. For example, the Yangtze River storage production line bidding is dominated by ArF and KrF. The back-end coating and development equipment is related to the packaging form. Traditional packaging forms include SIP (single in-line), DIP, SOT, TO, etc., and advanced packaging includes FC, WLP, 2.5D and 3D packaging, etc.

The glue-coating developer market is approximately US$2.3 billion, with EUV becoming the main driver of market growth in the coming years. The market size of glue coating and developing equipment has gradually grown since 2013, reaching US$2.3 billion in 2018 (of which mainland China and Taiwan, China totaled US$900 million), a year-on-year increase of 28%, with a CAGR of 11% from 2013 to 2018. VLSI expects the rubber coating and development equipment market to reach US$2.5 billion in 2023, and TEL expects it to reach US$2.5 billion in 2022. From a process perspective, ArF and KrF occupy about 50% of the market share of glue coating and development equipment, and the market is relatively stable. With the penetration of EUV technology in the next few years, EUV glue coating and development equipment will become the main driving force.

In terms of competitive landscape, TEL has an absolute dominance in the world, while Xinyuan Micro has a small share of the domestic market. From a global market perspective, TEL holds an 88% share, with the remaining manufacturers including Screen (5%) and SEMES (6%). In the Chinese market, TEL's market share is as high as 92%, while other manufacturers such as Screen (1%), CANON (2%), Xinyuan Micro (3%) and Shengmei (2%) have lower shares (Shenmei can Produces semiconductor coating systems for WLP). In terms of process links, in terms of front-end equipment, TEL and Screen products can cover all processes. Domestic manufacturers have not yet mastered the ArFi immersion coating and development equipment for advanced nodes below 28nm. The products are in terms of production capacity, mean time to failure, and film coating uniformity , development fineness, temperature-controlled heat treatment precision, process adaptability, etc. are weak; in terms of back-end equipment, Xinyuan Micro's technical level is close to that of foreign manufacturers, and its products are inferior in production capacity, mean time to failure, development fineness, and temperature-controlled heat treatment precision. In terms of film coating uniformity, it is partly weaker than that of foreign manufacturers.

Xinyuan Micro: Formerly Shenyang Xinyuan Advanced Semiconductor, a joint venture between Advanced Manufacturing and South Korea's STL, it undertook the National 02 Special Project "Development and Industry of Bump Packaging Glue Development and Monolithic Wet Etching Equipment" in 2008 and 2012 "" and "R&D of 300mm wafer uniformity and development equipment". Its glue coating and development equipment is mainly used in back-end advanced packaging and LED, accounting for 19% of the market share in the advanced packaging market. (slightly)

2.1.3 Glue removal equipment: Yitang occupies a large share of domestic glue removal machines, and Xinyuan Micro/CLP 45 is also making breakthroughs

Remover: In the semiconductor manufacturing process, the photoresist only serves as a medium for pattern transfer. After the pattern transfer is completed, the photoresist needs to be completely removed to prevent the remaining photoresist from affecting the quality of subsequent processes. The glue remover is mainly used to remove the photoresist whose surface is used as a barrier layer after the wafer is etched. It is suitable for processing 50-300mm wafers.

Gum removal is divided into dry glue removal and wet glue removal. Dry glue removal mainly uses plasma, which uses oxygen plasma active single-atom oxygen to react with the photoresist to generate volatile substances to achieve the purpose of glue removal. Dry glue removal is suitable for most processes. It has high glue removal efficiency, high reliability, and is easy to automate. However, the residue can easily cause surface defects. Wet glue removal uses organic solvents and inorganic solvents, and uses methods such as dissolution or chemical reaction to remove glue. Different solvents for wet glue removal have different limitations. They are generally used as a supplement to dry glue removal. The advantages are simple process and clean glue removal. The disadvantages are slow glue removal speed, high cost of glue removal solution and environmental pollution.

Yitang Semiconductor occupies 11% of the global glue remover market, and its domestic market self-sufficiency rate reaches 81%. The overall global market for glue removers is about US$500 million, accounting for about 1% of the semiconductor equipment market. The main suppliers include PSK, Lam Semiconductor, Hitach, Yitang Semiconductor, Ulvac, etc. The top five manufacturers account for 97% of the market share. Market competition relatively concentrated. Judging from the bidding situation of some domestic wafer production lines, Yitang Semiconductor dominates the country, with a market share of 81%, and a high localization rate. Lam Semiconductor and Screen account for 17% and 2% respectively. In addition, domestic manufacturers Xinyuan Micro and China Electronics Technology Co., Ltd. 45 can also produce glue removers.

Yitang Semiconductor: Founded in 2015, Yizhuang Guotou acquired American semiconductor equipment manufacturer Mattson for approximately US$300 million through Yitang Semiconductor. Mattson provides dry debonding, dry etching, RTP (rapid thermal processing), measurement and other equipment for 12-inch wafer fabs around the world. The three types of equipment are among the top three in the world in their respective fields. The main customers are the world's leading chip manufacturers. Manufacturer. (slightly)

2.2 Etching link: AMEC and Northern Huachuang are competitive, and their share is expected to continue to increase. 

Etching (Etch) is a very important process in IC manufacturing. Its cost is second only to photolithography (20% for etching and 30% for photolithography). It is a patterning process related to photolithography. Etching, in a narrow sense, is photoetching. The photoresist is first exposed through photolithography, and then the parts that need to be removed are etched through other methods. Etching is the process of selectively removing unwanted material from the surface of a silicon wafer using chemical or physical methods. Its basic goal is to correctly replicate the mask pattern on the glued silicon wafer.

According to different principles, etching can be divided into dry and wet methods, of which dry etching processes account for more than 90%. Dry etching is a technology that uses plasma to etch thin films. Wet etching is a technology that immerses the etching material in a corrosive liquid for corrosion. Wet etching requires a large amount of corrosive chemicals that are harmful to the human body and the environment. Reagents are gradually being replaced by dry etching.

According to different materials, etching can be divided into silicon etching, dielectric etching and metal etching, with their market shares being 47%, 48% and 3% respectively. Dielectric etching is used for etching dielectric materials, such as silicon dioxide. The production of contact holes and through-hole structures requires etching dielectric, and window etching with a high aspect ratio (the ratio of the depth to the width of the window) has certain challenging. Silicon etching is used where silicon needs to be removed, such as etching polysilicon transistor gates and silicon tank capacitors. Metal etching mainly removes the aluminum alloy composite layer from the metal layer to create interconnection lines.

According to different plasma generation and control technologies, it can be divided into capacitively coupled plasma (CCP) etching machines and inductively coupled plasma (ICP) etching machines. CCP etching uses capacitive coupling to generate plasma and is generally used for dielectric etching, covering logic chip gate sidewall and hard mask etching, middle-stage contact hole etching, back-stage damascene and aluminum pad etching, and 3D NAND Deep grooves, deep holes and wire contact empty etching, etc.; while ICP etching uses inductive coil coupling to generate plasma, which is generally used for silicon etching and metal etching, covering silicon shallow trenches, germanium, polysilicon gates, Metal gates, strained silicon, metal wires, metal pads, damascene etched metal hard masks and multiple imaging.

As integrated circuit manufacturing line widths continue to shrink, chip structures become 3D, and the number of interconnection layers increases, the demand for etching and coating increases. Since 2013, the value of etching equipment in the production line has increased significantly. At present, the global etching equipment market is dominated by dielectric etching and silicon etching, accounting for 48% and 47% of the contract respectively, while metal etching is only 3%. This is consistent with the fact that after 2010, the entire integrated circuit process has changed from aluminum interconnect ( Etching aluminum metal) is related to switching to copper interconnect (etching dielectric). Metal etching and dielectric etching wax and wane.

Advanced processes and chip shrinkage drive equipment demand, and the etching industry welcomes growth. Limited by the limitation of 193nm immersion lithography machine, wafer manufacturing is developing towards 7nm, 5nm and more advanced processes. In addition to using expensive EUV lithography machine, many chips of 14nm and below are manufactured through multiple templates. The effect is to achieve process shrinkage and increase the number of etching processing steps. The 10nm process is a key node. Compared with 14nm, its etching steps are 115, an increase of 77%. By the 5nm process, the etching steps will be 2.5 times or more than that of 14nm. The global etching equipment market is currently approximately US$7.5 billion and is expected to increase to approximately US$14 billion in 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of 11%, indicating steady industry growth.

Globally, the etching equipment market is dominated by three companies, with Lam Semiconductor accounting for half of the market. According to TEL, Lam Semiconductor has a market share of approximately 55%, followed by Tokyo Electronics with a market share of approximately 20%, and Applied Materials, which is equivalent to Tokyo Electronics with a market share of approximately 19%. In terms of equipment type, the global giant in the field of dielectric etching equipment is Tokyo Electron, with a market share of 52.4% in 2017, and Fanlin Semiconductor ranked second, with a market share of 40.1% in 2017. The two are the largest. Dielectric etching is the advantageous area of ​​domestic manufacturer AMEC, which mainly uses CCP etching. Its global market share in 2017 was 2.5%, and it is expected to be around 5% in 2018. In terms of dry etching equipment, Lam Semiconductor ranked first with a market share of 47.7% in 2017, Tokyo Electronics ranked second with 26.6%, Applied Materials ranked third with 18.7%, and China Micro Semiconductor Etch. The overall market share of the erosion business is approximately 0.6%.

Overall, the localization rate of domestic etching machines reaches 18%, with China Microelectronics Corporation and Northern Huachuang contributing more. According to the bidding status of SMIC, Yangtze Memory and Hefei Ruili, the number of etching machines purchased from Sinomicro accounts for about 15-20% of the total etching machine purchases, approaching Tokyo Electronics and Applied Materials, with significant progress. By material, in the domestic dielectric etching equipment market, China Microelectronics holds a 25% share, and the localization rate is at a high level among various types of semiconductor equipment; in the silicon etching equipment market, Northern Huachuang holds a 15% market share .

Compared with major international manufacturers, the categories of domestic etching equipment are not complete enough, and etching equipment for different processes is gradually verified and mass-produced. China Micro International's major manufacturers Fanlin Semiconductor and Applied Materials can achieve full coverage of CCP and ICP, dielectric/silicon/metal etching, 7nm and above, while China Micro and Northern Huachuang have not yet achieved full coverage. Medium and micro dielectric etching equipment is strong and has been put into mass production. Its customers include TSMC, Samsung, SMIC and other major domestic and foreign manufacturers. Its silicon etching equipment for polysilicon gate process is being verified. Northern Huachuang has a layout in both dielectric etching and silicon etching equipment. The dielectric etching equipment used for shallow trench isolation has been mass-produced, silicon etching equipment has also been mass-produced, and metal etching equipment has also been laid out. It owns SMIC , Huahong, Huali and other domestic first-class customers.

2.3 Coating link: The layout of domestic manufacturers is beginning to take shape, with PVD and MOCVD leading the way 

Thin film growth refers to the process of physically or chemically attaching substances to the surface of a substrate material. According to different working principles, thin film deposition can be divided into three categories: physical vapor deposition (PVD), chemical vapor deposition (CVD) and epitaxy. Thin film growth requires a balance between film performance and cost. Growth rate, uniformity, film stress control, particle impurity control, etc. are all key indicators of the film growth process. Thin film growth processes are widely used in logic circuits, memory devices, LEDs, power devices, flat panel displays, MEMS and advanced packaging.

PVD can be divided into two types: evaporation and sputtering. Evaporation is divided into two types: thermal evaporation and electron beam evaporation. In the early days of PVD, thermal evaporation was the main method. The principle is to thermally evaporate metal materials in a vacuum to deposit them on the substrate surface. The disadvantage is that it is difficult to meet the needs of some refractory metals and oxides, the deposition rate is slow, and the alloy ratio is difficult to control. , the step coverage is not good, and it is currently rarely used in IC processes. Electron beam evaporation means that electrons bombard the evaporation material of the anode under the acceleration of an electric field, causing it to be heated and vaporized, and deposited on the surface of the substrate. It has good film uniformity, good step coverage, good alloy ratio control, and higher output. Advantages: Mainly used in some mid- to low-end process production lines.

As the size of the wafer increases, sputtering technology gradually replaces vacuum evaporation. The principle is to use a magnetic field to impact high-energy particles into atoms of high-purity target materials, and the atoms that are struck out are deposited on the substrate surface. Magnetron sputtering can increase the plasma density, form more sputters on the target and reduce the substrate temperature. It can increase the step coverage, control the alloy ratio very well, and has high output efficiency. It is widely used in advanced IC processes. Metalization process.

3) Epitaxy: A layer of single crystal material with the same lattice arrangement as the substrate is grown on a single crystal substrate. The epitaxial layer can be a homoepitaxial layer (Si/Si) or a heteroepitaxial layer (SiGe/ Si or SiC/Si, etc.). Epitaxy processes include molecular beam epitaxy (MBE), vapor phase epitaxy (VPE), liquid phase epitaxy, chemical beam epitaxy, ion cluster epitaxy, low-energy ion beam epitaxy and metal organic chemical vapor deposition (MOCVD).

MOCVD is a key equipment for the preparation of compound semiconductor materials. In MOCVD, ultrapure gases are injected into a reactor and precisely metered to deposit very thin atomic layers onto semiconductor wafers, forming epitaxy of materials and compound semiconductors. Different from traditional silicon semiconductors, compound semiconductors include elements of Group III and Group V, Group II and Group VI, Group IV, Group V and Group VI. It is the key equipment for the current preparation of compound semiconductors and is used in semiconductor devices, optical devices, gases, etc. Sensitive components, superconducting thin film materials, ferroelectric/ferromagnetic thin films, high dielectric materials and other thin film materials.

The thin film growth equipment market is growing steadily, with an overall market size of approximately US$12.4 billion. In terms of CVD equipment, according to Trendforce, the global CVD equipment market size was approximately US$8.4 billion in 2017 and will grow to US$8.9 billion by 2023. CVD downstream demand includes microelectronic components, data storage, solar products, cutting tools and medical equipment, among which microelectronic components and data storage account for 38% and 24% respectively.

In terms of PVD equipment, according to Garter's statistics on the output value of CVD, PVD and epitaxial equipment, the market size of PVD equipment in 2019 is estimated to be approximately US$2.9 billion. The downstream demand is mainly microelectronic components and data storage, accounting for 38% and 23% respectively. As process nodes advance towards advanced processes, the number of metal interconnection layers increases, and the demand for PVD is also increasing.

In terms of epitaxial equipment, according to Yole, the epitaxial equipment market size is approximately US$940 million and is expected to exceed US$2 billion in 2023, of which approximately 70% is MOCVD equipment. Metals are used in most III-V compound semiconductor epitaxy, such as gallium arsenide and nitrogen. Gallium devices. The growth in demand for epitaxial equipment is mainly driven by LED and power supply applications. The future growth drivers are mainly power supplies, lasers, MEMS, Mini/Micro LED and radio frequency devices.

In terms of equipment, the plasma CVD equipment market is the largest. According to Gartner, plasma CVD equipment has the largest market size, accounting for 33%, while sputtering PVD, tubular CVD, non-tubular CVD and ALD equipment account for 19%, 12%, 11% and 11% respectively. The global thin film growth equipment market is mainly dominated by manufacturers such as AMAT, LAM and TEL. In terms of CVD equipment, four manufacturers, AMAT, LAM, TEL and Hitachi International Electric, account for 84% of the market. In terms of PVD equipment, Applied Materials is far ahead, with a 74% market share. In terms of other thin film growth equipment, Applied Materials and Lam Semiconductor have a combined market share of 53%. Domestic manufacturer Zhongwei Semiconductor has a market share of 7% and mainly produces MOCVD.

The MOCVD equipment market size is between US$600 million and US$1.2 billion, with China being the largest demand market. According to Gaogong LED, the number of MOCVD equipment in China increased from 1,222 to 1,718 from 2015 to 2017, with an average annual compound growth rate of 18%; as of 2018, the number of domestic MOCVD equipment reached 1,938. China has become the world's largest demand market for MOCVD equipment, with equipment ownership accounting for more than 40% of the world's total. Based on this, it is estimated that the global demand for MOCVD equipment is more than 4,300 units. According to Technavio, the global MOCVD market CAGR will reach 14% by 2021, and the market size will grow from US$615 million in 2016 to US$1.163 billion in 2021, driven by LED display backlights and high-power devices.

American Veeco, German AIXTRON, Japanese NIPPON Sanso and Nissin Electric are early-starting MOCVD equipment suppliers. Due to Japan's export restriction policy on MOCVD equipment, the global market is basically monopolized by AIXTRON and Veeco, with their market shares being 46% and 46% respectively. 27%, AMEC also holds 24% of the market share, with a significant upward trend. Other companies involved in MOCVD equipment include Zhongsheng Optoelectronics.​ 

The localization rate of thin film deposition equipment is generally low, and the localization rate of PVD equipment is higher than that of CVD equipment. Taking Yangtze Storage's 30k capacity production line bidding as an example, the localization rate of CVD equipment is very low. Only Shenyang Tuojing won the bid for 3 PECVD units, accounting for 4%; in terms of PVD equipment, Northern Huachuang won the bid for 3 barrier layer PVD units, accounting for 4%. 18%, and won the bid for 3 aluminum pad PVD units, accounting for 100%. Judging from the equipment bidding status of Huali Integration, Huahong Wuxi Factory and Jita Semiconductor production line, the localization rate of thin film deposition equipment is 6%, 16% and 33% respectively. Overall, the localization rate of CVD equipment is about 2%-5%, and that of PVD equipment is about 10%-15%. The localization rate is still relatively low.​ 

Among domestic manufacturers, there are already China Micro Semiconductor, Northern Huachuang, Shenyang Tuojing and Zhongsheng Optoelectronics, which can achieve domestic substitution in segmented fields. (slightly)

2.4 Heat treatment link: The localization rate of the 12-inch production line is low, and the 6-8-inch line can basically achieve self-sufficiency

In the integrated circuit manufacturing process, the diffusion process is a traditional method for doping silicon materials. The process is simple and the diffusion is fast, but the concentration distribution is difficult to control. Another method is to inject impurity ions into the surface area of ​​the wafer through the ion implantation process for doping. It has good repeatability, many types of impurities to choose from, and accurate doping dose control, but the equipment is expensive and there is implantation damage. Both methods have their own pros and cons, and have their own application scenarios.

1) Diffusion process: It is a traditional method of introducing impurities into silicon materials. It is used to control the type, concentration and distribution area of ​​the main carriers in the wafer substrate, thereby controlling the conductivity and conductivity type of the substrate. Traditional diffusion equipment is mainly horizontal diffusion furnace and vertical diffusion furnace. Different from the ion implantation process (low temperature process), the diffusion process is a high temperature process (heat treatment process). The advantages are simple diffusion equipment, low equipment cost, fast diffusion rate, high doping concentration, etc.; the disadvantage is that the diffusion temperature is high and the diffusion concentration distribution is difficult to control. , it is difficult to achieve selective diffusion. Horizontal diffusion furnace: It is a heat treatment equipment widely used for the diffusion process of integrated circuits with a diameter of less than 200mm. It is characterized by the fact that the heating furnace body, reaction tube and quartz boat carrying the wafer are all placed horizontally. The advantage is that it has good inter-chip uniformity and is widely used in diffusion, oxidation, annealing, alloying and other processes in discrete devices, power electronics, optoelectronic devices and optical fibers. The disadvantage is that it cannot accurately control the distribution of doping concentration, so the diameter is 200mm. The diffusion process of the above wafers is gradually replaced by ion implanters, but it is still used in a small amount for heavy doping processes. The horizontal diffusion furnace can be equipped with 1-5 process furnace tubes. The more furnace tubes, the greater the production capacity and the higher the utilization efficiency of the clean room.

Vertical diffusion furnace: It is a heat treatment equipment used for the diffusion process of integrated circuits with a diameter of 200mm and 300mm. It is characterized by the fact that the heating furnace body, reaction tube and quartz boat carrying the wafer are all placed vertically. The advantages are good intra-chip uniformity, high degree of automation, and stable system performance. It can meet the needs of large-scale integrated circuit production lines and is also commonly used in the field of power electronics (such as IGBT). The core technology of the vertical diffusion furnace mainly focuses on high-precision temperature field control, particle control, micro-environment micro-oxygen control, system automation control, advanced process control and factory automation, etc. Its technical indicators are not much different from the horizontal diffusion furnace.

2) Annealing process and annealing furnace: used for specific annealing heat treatment after the completion of oxidation, diffusion, epitaxy, ion implantation, evaporation electrode and other processes, mainly to eliminate lattice defects, lattice damage, remove oxygen/impurities, and clean surface adsorbed substances , improve surface roughness, etc. Annealing can be divided into rapid annealing, laser annealing and traditional furnace annealing. Traditional tubular annealing furnaces are used for small-size (diameter <200mm) wafers, while vertical annealing furnaces and monolithic annealing furnaces are used for large-size (diameter ≥200mm) wafers. Annealing after ion implantation often uses rapid heat treatment equipment for rapid annealing.

Rapid Thermal Processing (RTP): Rapid thermal annealing (RTP) is performed on the wafer after ion implantation, that is, the entire wafer is heated to a certain temperature (400-1300°C) in a very short time. Compared with the tube annealing furnace, it has the advantages of small thermal budget, small impurity movement range in the doped area, and short contamination processing time. It can use energy sources such as lamp annealing and laser annealing, and is widely used in high-end integrated circuits with a diameter of 300mm. in the manufacturing process. The main manufacturers of RTP equipment are monopolized by companies such as Applied Materials, Axcelis, Mattson and ASM, with a combined market share of approximately 90%.

3) Oxidation process and oxidation furnace: The silicon wafer is placed in an oxidant atmosphere such as oxygen or water vapor for high-temperature heat treatment. A chemical reaction occurs on the surface of the silicon wafer to form an oxide film. It is one of the most widely used IC basic processes. The oxide film has a wide range of uses and can be used as a barrier layer for ion implantation and an implant penetration layer (damage buffer layer), surface passivation, insulating gate material, device protection layer, isolation layer, dielectric layer of the device structure, etc. Oxidation equipment includes oxidation furnaces and high-temperature oxidation furnaces. The application of high-temperature oxidation furnaces is gradually decreasing due to safety and high-pressure system pollution.

In the area of ​​IC manufacturing with wafer diameters less than 150mm, domestic diffusion equipment (horizontal diffusion furnaces) are basically self-sufficient. Related manufacturers include Northern Huachuang, China Electronics Technology Institute 48, etc.; while in the area of ​​integrated circuit manufacturing with a diameter of 300mm, the domestic diffusion equipment (horizontal diffusion furnace) is basically self-sufficient. Type diffusion furnace/oxidation furnace equipment relies on imports. The main manufacturers include Tokyo Electronics, Hitachi International, etc. In China, only Northern Huachuang can provide vertical diffusion furnace/annealing furnace/oxidation furnace/alloy furnace in small batches.

2.5 Ion implantation: Photovoltaic ion implantation has advantages, and the IC field is in urgent need of development. 

The ion implanter is the most important doping equipment in the very large scale integrated circuit manufacturing process. Compared with the traditional thermal doping process, the ion implantation process has the advantages of better dose uniformity and repeatability, and smaller lateral diffusion. It overcomes many limitations of the thermal doping process and can meet the requirements of shallow junction, low temperature and precise control. and other requirements, improving the quality of integrated circuit doping processes and reducing costs and power consumption.

The ion implantation process is one of the main processes in integrated circuit manufacturing. It refers to a process in which an ion beam is accelerated to a certain energy (generally between keV and MeV) and then injected into the surface layer of a solid material to change the physical properties of the surface layer of the material. In the integrated circuit process, the solid material is usually silicon, and the implanted impurity ions are usually boron ions, phosphorus ions, arsenic ions, indium ions, germanium ions, etc. The injected ions can change the surface conductivity of solid materials or form PN junctions. When the feature size of integrated circuits is reduced to submicron, the ion implantation process has been widely used.

According to the current size or ion energy, ion implanters can be divided into medium and low current ion implanters, high current ion implanters and high energy ion implanters. The ion beam current of medium and low current ion implanters is less than 10mA, and the beam energy is less than 180keV, which is suitable for punch-through implantation; the ion beam current of high-current ion implanters is between 10mA and 25mA, and the beam energy is less than 120keV, which is suitable for ultra-shallow sources and drains. Area implantation; high-energy ion implanter beam energy ranges from 200keV to several MeV, suitable for trench or thick oxide layer implantation to form reverse doped wells and buried layers. High-current ion implanters are more common, accounting for about 61% of the market, followed by medium-low current ion implanters (20%) and high-energy ion implanters (18%).

Memory (advanced processes) and mature processes are the two main areas where ion implantation is used. Memories, especially DRAM, require a large number of ion implantation steps, accounting for about 44% of the demand for ion implantation equipment. NAND requires 37 ion implantation steps, while DRAM requires 55 ion implantation steps. Products with mature processes (28 nanometers and above) also account for 41% of the demand for ion implantation equipment, especially CIS, MEMS, analog, power, MCU and other products related to 8-inch wafer lines. The barriers are relatively low, and domestic power/ Chip manufacturers such as analog/CIS are quite powerful. In the future, as the share of chip design and manufacturing increases, the above areas are the areas where the opportunities for domestic supporting ion implantation are most certain.

The American Eaton Company and Varian Company were once the world's largest ion implanter manufacturers. In 2002, Axcelis was spun off from Eaton and went public independently; in 2011, Applied Materials acquired Varian for $4.9 billion. Axcelis' market share has gradually increased in recent years, mainly due to its continuous development of product lines and increased emphasis on DRAM and other storage links. We are optimistic about local specialty process production lines, mature process production lines, storage production lines, and entry opportunities for local ion implanter manufacturers.

The ion implanter market size is approximately US$1.5 billion. The global market is mainly occupied by AMAT and Axcelis, with a combined share of 88%. The global ion implanter market reached approximately US$1.5 billion in 2018, a year-on-year growth of 12%, and maintained double-digit growth from 2016 to 2018. In terms of competitive landscape, the U.S. Applied Materials company has a 70% market share, and the U.S. Axcelis has about 18% of the market share. Its market share is increasing year by year, approaching Applied Materials. Japan's Sumitomo Heavy Machinery also has ion implanters, with a process node of 20-22nm and a share of 8%.

Low-energy, large-beam ion implanters occupy a high proportion of the production line, and the industry is highly concentrated. Due to the miniaturization of chip manufacturing processes, the demand for shallow-layer doping has become more prominent, and low-energy, large-beam equipment has become the mainstream, accounting for about 61%. For example, a NAND Flash production line requires about 37 ion implanters, including 10 high energy, 20 large beam, and 7 medium beam; a DRAM production line requires about 55 ion implanters, of which 3 High energy, 40 large beams and 12 medium beams; a logic chip production line requires about 30-40 ion implanters, of which about 25-30 large beams and 5-10 medium beams. Large-beam ion implanters are mainly controlled by three leading companies. Applied Materials acquired Varian and became the leader, with a market share of 40%; followed by Axcelis, with a market share of 32%; and third, AIBT, with a market share of 25%. The top three companies account for more than 97% of the market share, and the industry is highly concentrated.

Judging from the bidding situation of domestic wafer fab lines, Applied Materials and Axcelis still dominate, and the penetration rate of domestic brands is low. In the domestic membrane logic production line bidding, the ion implanters are mainly applied materials, Axcelis and Sumitomo. Only China Science and Technology won the bid in China, accounting for 1%. In the Yangtze Storage bidding information, AMAT and Axcelis accounted for all the shares of ion implanters, and no domestic manufacturer won the bid. Among domestic equipment, Beijing Zhongkexin and Keshitong both have ion implanter products, but the process still lags behind that of major international manufacturers.

2.6 CMP link: The CMP equipment market has an obvious trend of concentration at the top, and domestic CMP equipment has made breakthroughs.

The chemical mechanical polishing (CMP) process uses the synergistic effect of chemical etching and mechanical grinding to remove the surface material of the silicon wafer minutely, thereby improving the surface morphology quality of the silicon wafer and improving the flatness of the silicon wafer surface. It is currently the only method that can achieve global planarization at the same time. and local flattening techniques. CMP equipment can be divided into two types: multi-piece single-sided polishing machine and multi-piece double-sided polishing machine. Silicon wafer manufacturers classify silicon wafers with a diameter less than 200mm into single-sided polishing machines and double-sided polishing machines according to different user needs. Since chemical mechanical polishing is a process with low processing efficiency and high processing cost, single-sided polishing discs with a diameter less than 200mm are generally products formed by polishing one side of the silicon wafer based on the grinding disc. In the manufacturing process, multi-piece single-sided polishing machines are generally used, that is, multiple polishing heads are used to polish simultaneously on one polishing table to improve polishing efficiency and reduce production costs. Silicon wafers with a diameter of 300mm are mainly double-sided polished wafers, generally using a combination of double-sided polishing and single-sided polishing.

With the development of wafer manufacturing technology, the number of CMP required has increased, and the demand for CMP equipment and CMP materials has also increased significantly. Taking memory as an example, the average number of CMPs for 3D NAND is approximately twice that of 2D NAND, and the number of CMPs for non-tungsten materials exceeds 60% (Integrated circuits use a large amount of metal tungsten as conductors to transmit electrical signals, and these metal tungsten require polished). In the entire wafer manufacturing process, as the process shrinks from 250nm to 7nm, the total number of CMPs increases from 8 to 30.

Global CMP equipment is mainly dominated by Applied Materials of the United States and Ebara of Japan. In 2018, the global CMP equipment market size was approximately US$1.842 billion, accounting for approximately 4% of wafer manufacturing equipment. The mainland CMP equipment market size reached US$459 million, but 90% of high-end CMP equipment relies on imports. According to Gartner, in 2017, the main suppliers of CMP equipment were Applied Materials, Japan's Ebara (Ebara) and Tokyo Precision. In 2017, Applied Materials’ CMP equipment sales were US$1.245 billion, with a market share of 71%, and Ebara’s sales were US$467 million, with a market share of 27%.

The competition in the CMP equipment market is clearly concentrating towards the top, and domestic CMP equipment has made breakthroughs. Competition in the CMP equipment market is fierce. The number of CMP equipment manufacturers has gradually concentrated from 20 in 1997 to just two (Applied Materials and Ebara) in 2017, and the market share of the largest supplier of CMP equipment, American Applied Materials, is still increasing year by year. . The current major domestic CMP equipment suppliers are China Electronics Technology and Huahai Qingke. In the latest 30k capacity production line equipment bidding of Yangtze River Storage, Huahai Qingke won the bid for multiple CMP equipment for silicon and silica materials, and the localization rate reached 33% and 33%, while no domestic manufacturer won the bid for copper and tungsten CMP equipment.

2.7 Cleaning link: Shengmei/North Huachuang/Zhichun and other manufacturers are deployed, and there are greater opportunities for domestic substitution

Cleaning: Cleaning is divided into dry cleaning and wet cleaning. We will discuss wet cleaning here. Wet cleaning refers to the use of specific chemical solutions and deionized water to clean the wafer surface non-damagingly according to different process requirements to remove particles, natural oxide layers, organic matter, metal pollution, etc. during the integrated circuit manufacturing process. Sacrificial layer, polishing residue and other substances. The cleaning equipment is mainly tank-type wafer cleaning machines and single-chip cleaning machines.

Wafer cleaning is the most frequent process in wafer manufacturing, accounting for 33%. Multiple cleanings are required in one process. According to Shengmei Semiconductor, a complete process flow includes: CMP → Cleaning → Gluing → Photolithography → Etching → Cleaning → Deposition → Cleaning → Ion Implantation → Cleaning → CMP. This process is often cycled multiple times, with cleaning repeated up to 200 times. . Compared with dry cleaning, wet cleaning is more efficient, and 90% of cleaning is wet cleaning.

As the chip manufacturing process continues to shrink, the production line's requirements for cleaning times and cleaning effects continue to increase. Over the past 25 years, the number of cleaning steps increased by 15% for each node improvement in the chip manufacturing process, while the yield requirements for die continued to increase. According to Shengmei Semiconductor, for a 100,000 piece/month DRAM production line, a 1% increase in yield can increase the manufacturer's annual profits by US$30-50 million.

Trough type wafer cleaning machine: It can clean multiple boxes of wafers at the same time, and can achieve dry entry and dry removal of wafers. 28nm and more advanced wet cleaning has increasingly higher requirements on the number of small particles on the wafer surface and etching uniformity. The tank wafer cleaning machine has different chemical liquids inside the tank, drying methods, and There are too many wafer contact points, which makes it impossible to meet the process requirements of advanced support, which accounts for about 20% of the steps in the entire cleaning process. Currently, trough-type wafer cleaning machines are mainly provided by Japan Screen, Tokyo Electronics and JET, which together account for about 75% of the market share. The price of a single unit is 1-2 million, and high-end brands such as DNS and TEL can reach 200-300. US$10,000; South Korea's Semes and Kctech can also provide such equipment, but mainly supply it to South Korea; domestic suppliers of this equipment include Northern Huachuang and Zhichun Technology.

Single-wafer cleaning equipment: It is superior to tank wafer cleaning machines in terms of particle size and quantity, speed and uniformity, metal contamination control, surface roughness, etc. It is the main cleaning equipment for advanced process wafers below 28nm, and is used in 80% of cleaning steps. Single-wafer cleaning machines can be divided into two categories: the first category is single-wafer cleaning machines, and the cleaning targets include particles, organic matter, natural oxide layers, metal impurities and other pollutants; the second category is single-wafer brush cleaning machines, which mainly Used to remove particles from wafer surfaces. In terms of price, an 8-cavity device costs US$2.5-3 million. A 12-cavity device costs US$3.5-5 million. Currently, single-chip cleaning equipment is mainly provided by Japan's Screen, Tokyo Electronics and the United States' Lam Semiconductor, which together account for more than 70% of the market share. Domestic companies include Shengmei Semiconductor, Northern Huachuang and Zhichun Technology.

The cleaning equipment market is approximately US$3.1 billion, dominated by Japanese manufacturers. From the perspective of market space, according to data from Shengmei Semiconductor and TMR, the cleaning equipment market size was approximately US$3.1 billion in 2018 and is expected to reach US$4.3 billion in 2023, with a CAGR of 6.8% from 2018 to 2023. From the perspective of market competition, the global wafer cleaning equipment market is mainly dominated by Screen (DNS), TEL, KLA, Fanlin and other manufacturers. The top three market shares are 54%, 23% and 10% respectively. According to Gartner, Screen is the leading manufacturer of cleaning equipment. In the single-chip cleaning equipment market, Screen's market share is as high as 55%. In the automatic cleaning table market, Screen's market share is more than 50%. In the washing machine market, Screen's market share is as high as 60%. above.

In terms of domestic manufacturers, Shengmei Semiconductor, Northern Huachuang and Zhichun Technology can produce tank-type wafer cleaning machines and single-chip cleaning machines. Shengmei Semiconductor is in a leading position, producing single-chip cleaning machines and has a relatively deep customer base in China; Xinyuan Micro focuses on single-chip cleaning machines, Northern Huachuang and Zhichun Technology have layouts for both trough and single-chip types, and all three have We have received orders from major domestic customers, but our revenue is still small. (slightly)

2.8 Process control link: The localization rate is relatively low, and the local country has the ability to measure film thickness of key dimensions. 

Process control equipment is a general term for measurement equipment and defect inspection equipment used in the process. During the chip production process, process control equipment must conduct non-destructive quantitative measurements and inspections of wafers that have passed through each process to ensure the key physical parameters of the process (such as film thickness, resistance, doping concentration, line width, trench/hole Depth, side wall angle, defects, etc.) to meet process specifications, discover possible "fatal" defects and classify them, eliminate unqualified wafers, and avoid waste in subsequent processes. Process control equipment is the key equipment to ensure that the chip production line quickly enters the mass production stage and obtains stable high yield and high economic benefits. As process nodes advance and processes become more complex, more and more process control equipment needs to be inserted into the process flow to improve chip yield.

The process inspection market has a strong correlation with the wafer manufacturing market, because process control equipment is a necessary equipment in the wafer manufacturing process. According to data from Kelei, the wafer manufacturing market continued to grow from 2013 to 2018 and shrank in 2019. Correspondingly, the process control market continued to grow from 2013 to 2018 and shrank in 2019, with the market size being approximately US$5 billion. According to VLSI, the process control equipment market reached US$5.8 billion in 2019, accounting for approximately 10% of the overall semiconductor equipment market, down 1.5% year-on-year in 2018.

Among process control equipment, those with a large market share include pattern wafer optical inspection equipment (32%), mask inspection equipment (13%), thin film measurement equipment (12%) and critical dimension scanning electron microscopes (10%), totaling Accounting for 67%. Looking at the competitive landscape, KLA is the absolute leader in the process control equipment market, with its capabilities in film thickness measurement, overlay error measurement, OCD (optical critical dimension) measurement, patternless inspection, patterned inspection and mask inspection, etc. Each segment has the highest market share. In addition, Nova, ASML, Nanomerics and AMAT also occupy a certain market.

At present, the process control equipment of domestic advanced wafer production lines is still mainly produced by international manufacturers. Domestic manufacturers still receive fewer orders, and the overall localization rate is still very low. Taking Yangtze Memory's 30k capacity production line bidding as an example, in terms of testing equipment, Zhongke Feicheng won the bid for 5 surface topography testing equipment, accounting for 100%; in terms of measurement equipment, Shanghai Ruili won the bid for 2 film thickness measurement equipment, accounting for 100% of the bid. With a ratio of 7.7%, Jingce Semiconductor won the bid for 3 integrated film thickness critical dimension measurement equipment, accounting for 10%. (slightly)

3. The localization of IC packaging equipment is relatively mature, and breakthroughs in testing and sorting are accelerating.

3.1 Packaging equipment: Domestic packaging equipment has made a breakthrough from traditional to high-end, and efforts are needed to support the full range of supporting capabilities. 

IC packaging can be divided into four levels. Common electronic packaging refers to zero-level and first-level packaging. IC packaging is a process that uses film technology and micro-processing technology to arrange, paste, fix and connect chips and other elements on a frame or substrate, lead out terminals, and pott and fix them through plastic insulating media to form an overall structure. Generally speaking, packaging can be divided into four levels. Common electronic packaging refers to zero-level and first-level packaging:

1) Zero-level packaging (Wafer level): wafer-level packaging, using processes such as detection, thinning, and dicing. The packaging equipment mainly involved includes wafer probe stations, wafer thinning machines, laser cutting machines, grinding wheels, etc. ;

2) Chip level: single-chip and multi-chip assembly, using processes such as interconnection and packaging. Traditional packaging mainly involves packaging equipment such as die bonding machines, wire bonding machines, chip flip-chip machines, plastic sealing machines, and cutting machines. Rib forming machines, lead plating machines and laser marking machines, etc.; advanced packaging such as WLCSP, etc. also need to use packaging photolithography machines, bump manufacturing equipment, ball placement machines and metal deposition equipment, etc.;

3) Second-level packaging (Board level, PCB level packaging) and third-level packaging (System level, complete machine assembly): mainly include through-hole insertion technology (THT) and surface mount technology (SMT), and the equipment involved is somewhat Glue machines, reflow ovens, placement machines, sealing and welding equipment, cleaning machines, automatic optical inspection equipment, etc.;

According to the level of technological development, IC packaging can be divided into traditional packaging and advanced packaging. Advanced packaging will use some front-end equipment (wafer manufacturing equipment). Advanced packaging technology and traditional packaging technology can be distinguished by whether wire bonding is performed. Advanced packaging technology includes flip chip packaging (FC), fan-out packaging (Fan-out), wafer level packaging (WLP), and system-in-package (SiP). ) and three-dimensional (3D) packaging and other non-wire bonding forms have shown huge advantages in improving chip performance. Traditional packaging processes are roughly divided into backside thinning, wafer cutting, patching, wire bonding, molding, electroplating, rib cutting/forming and other processes. Thinning machines, dicing machines, wire bonding machines, and patch machines are used. , flip-chip machines and reflow ovens, etc., and advanced packaging also uses front-end equipment such as photolithography, etching, electroplating, PVD, and CVD.

The packaging and testing equipment market is smaller than that of wafer manufacturing equipment, totaling approximately US$7.8 billion in 2019. In the global semiconductor equipment market, the packaging equipment market is relatively small, with packaging equipment accounting for approximately 6% and testing equipment accounting for approximately 9%. In China’s semiconductor equipment market, packaging equipment accounting for approximately 7% and testing equipment accounting for approximately 10%. According to SEMI, the global packaging equipment market grew at an average annual rate of 6.9% from 2010 to 2018. In 2018, the global packaging equipment market reached US$4 billion. In 2019, affected by trade conflicts and sluggish downstream demand, the global packaging equipment market scale It fell 26.58% to US$2.9 billion and is expected to recover and grow to US$3.2 billion in 2019.

There are many types of semiconductor packaging equipment, with Japanese, European and American manufacturers dominating the market. There are more than a dozen types of packaging equipment, including die bonding machines, dicing machines, bonding machines, thinning machines, etc. Among them, bonding machines account for the largest proportion of 31%, followed by die bonding machines, accounting for 18%, and dicing machines. Chip processors account for 15%. The various packaging equipment markets are in an oligopoly structure. For example, Japan's Disco monopolizes more than 80% of the world's key packaging equipment thinning machines and dicing machines. Other manufacturers include ASM Pacific, K&S, Besi, etc.

Domestic packaging equipment is generally at the low end and is rarely used in high-end packaging processes. Individual models rely on customized demand to enter the market, and a virtuous cycle of mass production driving high-end R&D has not yet been formed. The main reasons are: 1) Core components " "Stuck neck", such as the air-floating spindle, limits the development of high-end thinning machines and dicing machines; 2) Equipment R&D investment is high, equipment trial and error costs are high, and it is difficult to form a market to feed back R&D; 3) Domestic packaging equipment has relatively poor reliability , customers do not accept domestic equipment, forming a vicious circle with point 2; 4) Lack of high-end technical talents and teams.

Domestic industries are highly fragmented and no representative enterprises have emerged. According to statistics from the Packaging Branch of the China Semiconductor Industry Association, the sales volume of the packaging equipment and abrasive tools industry in 2018 reached 4,764 units (sets), achieving sales revenue of 1.717 billion yuan, and the annual production capacity reached 6,609 units (sets). The sales volume of the 12 manufacturers in the table accounted for 53.8% %, with revenue accounting for 62.5%. The industry is highly fragmented, and no representative leading company has yet emerged.

Judging from the research and development of domestic packaging equipment, local products can meet the needs of packaging processes such as LQFN, QFP, IGBT, RFID, WLP, etc. Some equipment, such as soft solder chip loading machines and test sorting machines, have reached the international advanced level, creating a Enter the domestic packaging factory supply chain.

The localization rate of advanced packaging equipment is gradually increasing, while the localization rate of traditional packaging equipment is relatively low. According to statistics from the China Electronic Special Equipment Industry Association, currently 17 types of 12-inch wafer advanced packaging and testing production line equipment have achieved a high degree of localization, with the localization rate reaching 70%. The lithography machines for packaging, as well as flip-chip, etching, PVD, cleaning, development, glue dispersion and other equipment have met domestic advanced packaging needs, and some have been sold in batches. The domestic production rate of front-end equipment for advanced packaging is relatively high, with photolithography machines, etching machines, ball implanters, etc. exceeding 50%. However, the overall localization rate of traditional packaging equipment does not exceed 10%. Major equipment such as dicing machines and bonding machines etc. are still heavily dependent on imports. Traditional packaging equipment is a neglected link and is in urgent need of support.

In terms of equipment: 

1) Bonding machine: Bonding machine mainly includes temporary bonding/debonding machine, wafer bonding machine and wire bonding machine. The main function of the temporary bonding/debonding machine is to temporarily bond the wafer to the rigid carrier substrate for thinning. The main function of the wafer bonding machine is to interconnect the wafers and achieve a certain interface bonding strength. The main manufacturers of temporary bonding/debonding machines and wafer bonding machines are Austrian EVG and German SUSS. In China, there are Shenzhen Chuangyijia, Suzhou Meitu and Shanghai Microelectronics Equipment.

The wire bonding machine is the core equipment for chip packaging interconnection. The key parameters are bonding accuracy, workbench positioning accuracy, bonding speed, bonding spacing, bonding wire diameter, output per hour (UPH), etc. At present, fully automatic bonding machines are mainly dominated by K&S and ESEC, followed closely by companies such as ASM, SHIKAWA and KAIJO. Other types of bonding machine manufacturers mainly include CETC, Han's Laser, Beijing Chuangshijie Technology, Shenzhen Kaijiu Automation, etc., the technological gap between domestic bonding machines and international ones is still large. CETC's Octopus series wafer bonding machines are used in advanced packaging technology applications such as 3D packaging, WLP Fan-out technology, multi-chip stacking technology and Panel-level Fan-out technology, and have been supplied in batches to leading domestic packaging plants.

2) Mounting machine (chip sticking machine): The main function is to install and fix the chip on the packaging substrate or casing. International SMT models cover 150mm, 200mm and 300mm wafers, with 300mm being the mainstream. The key technologies are machine motion control, chip picking and placing, and image recognition. For chip picking and placing, fast speed and high precision are required. The main manufacturers of die bonding machines include Besi, ASM, ECSC, Hoson and other manufacturers. The main domestic manufacturers include Dalian Jiafeng Automation, Shanghai Tanxin Electronics, etc. Their positioning accuracy, production efficiency and applicable chip size still lag behind the products of international manufacturers.

3) Dicing machine (cutting machine): It is divided into grinding wheel dicing machine and laser dicing machine. Its main function is to use grinding wheel/laser to cut or groove the wafer and other processed objects. Grinding wheel dicing machines are used for IC, LED, solar cells, resistors, etc. The main international manufacturers include Japan Disco, Tokyo Precision, Japan OKAMOTO, Israel Camtek, etc., and domestic manufacturers include Beijing Zhongke Electric, Shengmei Semiconductor, Shanghai Xinyang, and Shenyang Core Source, Suzhou Vistek, etc. Laser dicing machines have higher precision and efficiency and are used to cut wafers, sapphire wafers, MEMS, thin-film solar cells, etc. The main international manufacturers include Disco of Japan, JPSA of the United States, Synova of Switzerland, etc. Domestic manufacturers include 45 Institute of CETC, Beijing Kechuangyuan Optoelectronics, Shenyang Instrument Technology Research Institute, Northwest Machinery, Huisheng Electronics, Lanzhou Lanxin Huagong Laser, Han's Laser, etc.

Domestic manufacturers, represented by CETC, have made certain breakthroughs in wafer dicing machines. Take the domestic 12-inch wafer dicing machine as an example. The 12-inch wafer dicing machine has the characteristics of multi-wafer cutting, high efficiency, high precision, and saving labor costs. Domestic packaging companies are in urgent need of cheap 12-inch wafer dicing machines. With the support of the national "02 Special Project", China Electronics Technology Co., Ltd. has invested in the research and development of 12-inch dicing machines since 2014, making breakthroughs in biaxial structure workbench bridging technology, large-diameter thin wafer transmission technology, high-stiffness air-floating spindle technology and knife mark technology. Identify and analyze key technologies such as system design. Process verification was completed at Suzhou Jingfang at the end of 2017. After a year of technology accumulation in 2018, important technological breakthroughs and market breakthroughs were achieved in 2019, mass production was achieved, and the contract value exceeded 10 million yuan.

3.2 Test probe sorting equipment: Changchuan Technology/Huafeng Measurement and Control is gradually making breakthroughs, and high-end products are vigorously deployed (omitted)

The production of integrated circuit chips is mainly divided into IC design, IC front-end manufacturing and IC back-end packaging testing, with testing throughout the production process. Integrated circuit inspection can be divided into design verification, front-end inspection and back-end inspection according to the stage of the process. Design verification is used in the IC design stage. Front-end quality inspection runs throughout the wafer manufacturing process. Back-end inspection is mainly used after wafer manufacturing and in the IC packaging process.

Test machines account for the main market in test equipment, with SoC test machines accounting for the largest share. Test machines can be divided into memory test machines (including non-volatile memories such as DRAM and NAND) and non-memory test machines (including SoC, digital chips, analog/hybrid circuit chips) according to application. From the perspective of the test equipment market, test machines account for The ratio is the largest, totaling more than 64%, of which SoC test machines dominate, sorting machines and probe stations account for 16% and 15% respectively.

From the perspective of market space, the testing machine market is growing rapidly, reaching US$3.7 billion in 2018. According to VLSI, the global testing machine market reached US$3.7 billion in 2018, a year-on-year increase of 25.5%. Advant predicts that memory test machines will become a high growth point in 2019. The memory test machine market will grow by 20% and the non-memory test equipment market will grow by 5%. It is estimated that the global test machine market size will reach US$3.95 billion in 2019. As the packaging and testing industry begins a new boom cycle, testing equipment enters an upward cycle. The domestic analog test machine market size is 430 million yuan, and the domestic SoC test machine market size is approximately 850 million yuan, which is approximately twice the size of the analog test machine market. Local companies are expected to gradually break through from analog-to-digital hybrid to SoC test machines.

From a competitive perspective, the testing machine market is dominated by international manufacturers. International manufacturers such as Japan's Advant, the United States' Teradyne, Credence and Kohiu dominate the market, with a combined market share of up to 75%. Each manufacturer has different focuses. Teradyne has an absolute advantage in the field of SoC testers, with a market share of nearly 50%, and can provide analog, mixed-signal, memory and very large-scale integrated circuit tests; Advant focuses on memory testers, and its memory The market share of testing machines reaches 60%, and the market share of SoC testing machines reaches 35%; Credence and Kohiu have deployed testing machines and sorting machines.

Domestic manufacturers can achieve import substitution in the fields of analog/hybrid circuit testing and discrete device testing, with a high localization rate, but are weak in the areas of memory and SoC testers. Among them, Huafeng Measurement and Control, Changchuan Technology and Hongce Semiconductor have annual shipments of nearly 700 analog/hybrid circuit testing machines, accounting for 85% of the domestic analog testing machine market share. Linkage Technology and Hongbang Electronics discrete device testing machines have a domestic market share of more than 90%. In the SoC and memory areas, local companies have yet to form mature products and market breakthroughs. Huafeng Measurement and Control is planning to enter the SoC test machine market. Its fundraising project will be able to achieve a production capacity of 200 sets of SoC test machines after it is completed; Changchuan Technology focuses on analog/hybrid circuits and high-power test machines; while Jingce Electronics and Huaxing Yuanchuang Then we will delve deeper into panel testing equipment. (slightly)

Taking into account the background of industrial transfer, the growth rate of local equipment demand will be significantly higher than that of the world. According to calculations, we predict that the mainland market size of probe stations will grow from 1.08 billion yuan in 2018 to 1.8 billion yuan in 2020, with a CAGR of close to 30%. The mainland market size of sorting machines is expected to grow from 1.15 billion yuan in 2018 to 2.22 billion yuan in 2020, with a CAGR of approximately 40%.

Domestic substitution brings good opportunities to local manufacturers. The domestic testing equipment manufacturing leader has achieved rapid compound annual growth of more than 50% since 2012. This growth mainly benefits from domestic substitution, but currently more than 90% of the domestic market share is still occupied by overseas companies. In testing equipment, the accuracy of the probe station is required to be at the 1 micron level, so the technical barriers are high. The market is monopolized by Japan's Tokyo Electronics and Tokyo Precision. The sorting machine has achieved domestic substitution to a certain extent. Changchuan Technology has a domestic market share of about 12 %. Against the background of national policies supporting the development of local semiconductor companies, domestic substitution is accelerating and the space is very broad. It is now a golden period to enter the field of test equipment.

The domestic self-sufficiency rate of probe stations is almost 0, and local manufacturers are in the market introduction stage. There are three main companies in China: CLP 45 once had a domestic market share of 67%, but due to technical disadvantages, the market share has been compressed; Changchuan Technology has developed 8-inch and 12-inch probe stations, and 8-inch probe stations have begun to be developed. goods; Shenzhen Silicon can mass-produce probe stations. In terms of sorting machines, local manufacturers have a domestic market share of about 12%, and domestic manufacturers have made certain breakthroughs. Local sorting machine companies mainly include Changchuan Technology (gravity type and translational type), Huaxing Yuanchuang (translational type, turret type), Jinhaitong (translational type), Shanghai Zhongyi (gravity type), etc. Among them, Changchuan Technology has passed the verification of Changdian Technology and achieved batch sales, and Huaxing Yuanchuang has achieved small batch sales. (slightly)

4. Silicon wafer equipment is self-sufficient in 6-8 inch wafers, and the construction of 12-inch large silicon wafers will create supporting opportunities

4.1 Silicon wafer growth and processing equipment: The crystal growth furnace has broken through from 8 inches to 12 inches, and the localization of grinding and polishing equipment is low.

Silicon wafer manufacturing equipment manufactures pure polycrystalline silicon material into silicon single crystal rods of a certain diameter and length, and then processes the silicon single crystal rods through a series of mechanical processing, chemical treatment and other processes to manufacture silicon wafers or silicon wafers with certain geometric accuracy requirements. Epitaxial wafers provide the silicon substrate required for integrated circuit manufacturing. The general process of silicon wafer preparation is: crystal growth → rolling/shaping → slicing → annealing → chamfering → grinding → etching → polishing → cleaning → testing, which involves many special equipment, among which single crystal furnaces, polishing machines and testing equipment are The investment in core equipment accounts for 25%, 25% and 15% of the equipment investment respectively.

The main crystal growth processes include Czochralski method and zone melting method, and the corresponding equipment is Czochralski single crystal furnace and zone melting single crystal furnace. The Czochralski method is currently the main crystal growth process, and currently more than 85% of single crystal silicon is grown by the Czochralski method. Thermal field system is one of the most important conditions for the crystallization of silicon single crystal in Czochralski single crystal furnace. The temperature of the thermal field directly affects the Czochralski process of silicon single crystal and the quality of the finished single crystal. Therefore, the structure and efficiency of the thermal field are the key to Czochralski. One of the core technologies of single crystal furnace. The current international suppliers of Czochralski single crystal furnaces include Linton Crystal from the United States, Filotek from Japan, and PVA TePla from Germany. The main domestic suppliers include Xi'an Polytechnic Crystal Technology, Jingsheng Mechanical and Electrical, Jingyuntong, Qixing Huachuang, etc.

The silicon single crystal produced by the zone melting method has higher purity, but has a smaller diameter and higher process cost. The maximum diameter of the single crystal rod that can be prepared at present is 200mm, which is mainly used in power electronics, photodiodes, radio frequency detectors and infrared detection. Devices, etc., the international suppliers include German PVA TePla, and the domestic suppliers include Xi'an Polytechnic Crystal Technology, Jingsheng Electromechanical, and Jingyuntong.

1) The market size of single crystal furnace is about 3 billion, and the localization rate is relatively high, reaching 77%. Domestic 8-inch monocrystalline furnaces have gradually begun to realize domestic substitution, and 12-inch monocrystalline furnaces have begun small-batch production (domestic only Jingsheng Electromechanical and Nanjing Jingneng). The representative manufacturer Jingsheng Electromechanical has industrialized the 8-inch single crystal furnace and produced the 12-inch single crystal furnace in small batches. In addition, it has also deployed other special equipment for silicon wafer manufacturing and successfully developed 6-12-inch crystal spheronizing machines, cutting machines, and double-sided grinding machines. And 6-8-inch fully automatic silicon wafer polishing machines have been gradually sold in batches.

2) The polishing machine market size is about 2 billion, and the current localization rate is almost 0. Domestic polishing machine procurement relies on Japan's Speedfam, Japan's Fujikoshi, the United States' PR Hoffman, Germany's Lapmaster, etc. Domestic manufacturers such as Jingsheng Electromechanical have successfully developed 6-8 inch polishing machines, as well as China Electronics Technology, Suzhou Heriot Electronics, Hunan Yujing Machinery, etc. Production.

3) The market for testing equipment is huge and relies on imports, so there is a lot of room for localization. Testing equipment and front-end testing/process control equipment run through the chip manufacturing process, and testing equipment is discussed in the previous chapters.

Jingsheng Electromechanical: layout of silicon wafer links, including crystal growth equipment, slicing equipment, processing equipment, etc. In 2007, it developed the first fully automatic Czochralski single crystal furnace in China; from 2009 to 2011, it undertook the "development of 300mm silicon single crystal Czochralski growth equipment" and the "localization equipment of 8-inch zone melting silicon single crystal furnace" in the 02 special project "Research and Development" two projects; in 2012, the development of semiconductor-grade single crystal silicon rods was achieved, and the following year the zone melting single crystal furnace was successfully developed; in 2014, the zone melting single crystal furnace was commercialized. At present, Jingsheng Electromechanical has grown into a leading domestic enterprise in the development of single crystal furnaces. Its products are used in photovoltaics, integrated circuits, LEDs, etc. Its customers include Youyan Semiconductor, Zhengzhou Hejing, Jinruihong, Tianjin Huanou, Zhonghuan, Yichang CSG, Baotou JA Solar, etc., among which Zhonghuan is the largest customer.

There are few domestic suppliers of large silicon wafer single crystal furnaces. Jingsheng Electromechanical can supply large size silicon wafer single crystal furnaces, and its business layout extends to grinding, cutting and polishing equipment. Only a few domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers can supply single crystal furnaces, which are limited to small silicon wafers of 6-10 inches. Key indicators such as uniformity and defect density of large silicon wafers cannot meet customer requirements. Jingsheng electromechanical single crystal furnace can prepare 6-18 inch silicon wafers to meet the needs of downstream manufacturers. In addition, Jingsheng Electromechanical has successfully developed 6-12-inch crystal spheronizing machines, cutting machines, double-sided grinding machines and 6-8-inch fully automatic silicon wafer polishing machines, which have been gradually sold in batches, with shipment volume and revenue scale being relatively large. The crystal growth equipment is still relatively small.

Crystalline silicon growth equipment shipments and revenue have increased year by year, and gross profits have remained at a high level. In terms of revenue, Jingsheng Electromechanical Crystal Silicon Growth Equipment achieved sales of 1,344 units of crystal silicon growth equipment in 2018, with revenue of 1.940 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%. In terms of gross profit, Jingsheng Electromechanical’s gross profit margin remains at a level of 40%-50%, which is overall stable. In the future, as domestic large-scale silicon wafer projects continue to advance, Jingsheng’s related silicon wafer equipment revenue will grow.

Global demand for 12-inch large silicon wafers is strong, and supply and demand will remain tight for a long time. The silicon wafer production capacity and share are mainly occupied by Japan's Shin-Etsu (28%), Japan's SUMCO (25%), China's Taiwan Global Crystal (17%), Germany's Siltronic (15%) and South Korea's LG Siltron (9%), totaling 94% The total share of the top five 12-inch large silicon wafers is as high as 98%. Other silicon wafer manufacturers include France Soitec, Shanghai Silicon Industry, Beijing Youyan, Zhejiang Jinruihong, etc. In terms of silicon wafer size, 12-inch silicon wafers account for 63%, 8-inch silicon wafers account for 27%, and 6-inch silicon wafers account for 10%; in terms of downstream application fields, 12-inch silicon wafers are mainly advanced logic chips and memory chips, while 8-inch silicon wafers In use, 23% is used for analog devices, 21% is used for MOS tubes, 17% is used for optoelectronic devices, and 16% is used for discrete devices. The global silicon wafer market is worth tens of billions of dollars, and local semiconductor wafer line production capacity construction efforts are strong, driving demand for large silicon wafers and localization. There is huge space for the localization of silicon wafer-related equipment.

In 2020, the domestic demand for 12-inch large silicon wafers is expected to be 1.05 million pieces, and the demand for 8-inch silicon wafers is expected to be 965,000 pieces. If the locally planned 12-inch and 8-inch silicon wafer production lines are fully produced, they can completely cover the domestic market. silicon wafer demand. Currently, the total number of 12-inch large silicon wafers planned in China is 6.62 million, including: Xinsheng 600,000 wafers, Jinruihong 400,000 wafers, Zhonghuan Leading 520,000 wafers, Yisiwei 500,000 wafers, Ningxia Yinhe 200,000 wafers, Zhengzhou Hejing has 200,000 pieces, Youyan Dezhou has 300,000 pieces, Hangzhou SMIC has 200,000 pieces, Super Silicon has 850,000 pieces, Sinotec Jiaxing has 1 million pieces, etc. The total number of 8-inch large silicon wafers planned in China: 3.45 million, including: Super Silicon 500,000 wafers, Zhonghuan Leading 1.05 million wafers, Jinruihong 520,000 wafers, Ningxia Yinhe 500,000 wafers, Zhengzhou Hejing 200,000 wafers, and Youyan Dezhou has 230,000 pieces and Hangzhou SMIC has 350,000 pieces.

The total planned investment in silicon wafer projects is currently RMB 140 billion, of which equipment-related investment is approximately RMB 110 billion. Based on a 4-5-year investment plan, the average annual equipment demand is expected to be around RMB 22.5 billion. Specifically: silicon wafer manufacturing equipment - single crystal furnace 5.6 billion yuan; shaping equipment - roller cutting machine 2.5 billion yuan, slicing machine 1.1 billion yuan, grinding machine + chamfering machine 2.3 billion yuan, polishing machine 3.4 billion yuan, cleaning 2.3 billion yuan for machinery; 3.4 billion yuan for testing equipment. Silicon wafer equipment manufacturers such as Jingsheng Electromechanical, Northern Huachuang, Beijing Jingyuntong, and CLP 45 are expected to benefit from the large-scale construction of local silicon wafer production lines.

5. Investment advice

Looking forward to the future in 2020, although the epidemic has affected the shipment pace and demand of some downstream terminals, 5G commercialization is beginning, the long-term trend of 5G replacement and innovation cycle has been determined, the terminal side and functional side are ushering in an increase in demand, and core semiconductors Components are experiencing an increase in volume and price. On the other hand, the semiconductor boom gradually improved in 2019. Although the uncertainty of the trade environment and industry supply and demand has increased in 2020, the logic of domestic substitution in the long-dimensional semiconductor industry chain is accelerating. The local market has made great efforts to make breakthroughs in design, manufacturing, packaging and testing, storage and other aspects, and some areas have caught up with international standards. As the core part of the upstream of the semiconductor industry chain, the equipment and materials links are also receiving attention and support, and are expected to accelerate local support.

In 2019, the global semiconductor equipment market was about 57.6 billion US dollars, and the mainland area was about 13 billion US dollars, accounting for about 22.4%. However, the domestic production rate of pan-semiconductor equipment is about 16%, and the IC equipment is only 5%. The global Top 5 equipment manufacturers have a concentrated share of about 80%. The degree is higher. Wafer manufacturing accounts for about 80% of equipment investment, packaging accounts for about 6%, and testing accounts for about 9%. In the next three years, many wafer lines will be built in mainland China, with the average annual equipment demand reaching 100 billion yuan. Domestic semiconductor equipment companies continue to make breakthroughs and show a trend of rapid revenue growth. Their share of domestic production lines continues to increase, and they are expected to continue to benefit from local supporting facilities in the future. Chance.

Local companies are competitive in specialty processes, have clear plans for large-scale storage investment, advanced/mature processes are gradually improving, and newly built wafer production capacity has brought supporting opportunities to local equipment companies. At present, domestic equipment manufacturers are supplying 28nm production lines in batches, and 14nm is gradually being verified. We are optimistic about the opportunities for domestic equipment in 28nm and above production lines. We believe that the ease of localization of semiconductor equipment is: (1) In terms of products, power devices > digital analog devices > logic chips; (2) In terms of processes, featured processes > mature processes (28nm and above) > advanced processes; ( 3) In terms of size, 4-6 inches > 8 inches > 12 inches.

From the perspective of technical level, the localization level of etching/coating/cleaning/CMP/heat treatment equipment is relatively high. It is used in batches of advanced 28/14nm wafer lines and storage lines, and its share is increasing year by year, basically exceeding 15%; while optical There is a certain gap between engraving, glue coating and development, ion implantation, measurement equipment, testing and sorting compared with the international level, but there is also a breakthrough in share, not exceeding 5%. Domestic lithography machines currently reach the 90nm node, and have made breakthroughs in special process lines such as power; ion implantation has made breakthroughs in photovoltaics and 45-22nm low-energy large beams; measurement equipment mainly focuses on the measurement of key dimensions such as film thickness. However, other packaging and testing equipment such as probe stations, testing machines, sorting machines, etc. still have a gap in advanced applications such as digital chips.

Mainland China's semiconductor import substitution is accelerating. It is recommended to pay attention to: North Huachuang (etching/coating/heat treatment/cleaning), China Microelectronics (etching/coating), Shengmei (cleaning), Zhichun Technology (high-purity process/cleaning) , Shanghai Microelectronics (lithography machine), Huahai Qingke/China Kexin (CMP), CLP 48/Wanye Enterprise (ion implantation), Yitang (etching/heat treatment/removal), Shenyang Tuojing ( PECVD), Xinyuan Micro (glue development/removal/cleaning), Shanghai Precision Testing/Shanghai Ruili (process control testing), Changchuan Technology/Huafeng Measurement and Control/Huaxing Yuanchuang (testing and sorting), Jingsheng Electromechanical (Growing crystals on silicon wafers).