Material shortage affects semiconductor equipment delivery schedule, and the annual growth rate of wafer foundry production capacity will converge to 8% in 2023

Release time:

2023-12-01 15:24

According to TrendForce, semiconductor equipment is once again facing the dilemma of extended delivery times ranging from 18 to 30 months. Before the equipment delivery times were extended, it was estimated that the global 12-inch wafer foundry production capacity in 2022 and 2023 would be equivalent to annual production capacity. The growth rates are 13% and 10% respectively. It is currently observed that the impact of semiconductor equipment delay events on the 2022 production expansion plan is relatively slight. The main impact will occur in 2023, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. (TSMC), United Microelectronics Co., Ltd. (UMC), and Power Semiconductor Manufacturing Co., Ltd. PSMC), Vanguard, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), GlobalFoundries and other industries will be affected, covering mature and advanced processes. The overall expansion plan will be delayed by about 2 to 9 months. It is expected that This will reduce the annual growth rate of production capacity to 8%.

 

TrendForce adds that before the epidemic, the delivery time of semiconductor equipment was about 3 to 6 months. Since 2020, the epidemic has led to countries to implement strict border controls to block logistics. However, during the same period, IDMs and wafer foundries have benefited from strong terminal demand. Actively expanding production, the delivery period was forced to be extended to 12 to 18 months. By 2022, affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, logistics congestion, and insufficient production capacity of semiconductor industrial control chip processes, the shortage of raw materials and chips has impacted the production of semiconductor equipment. Excluding the annual fixed output of EUV lithography machines, the delivery period of the remaining machines has been extended to 18 ~30 months, among which DUV lithography machines (Lithography) are most severely out of stock, followed by CVD/PVD deposition (Deposition) and etching (Etching).

 

It is worth mentioning that the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and high inflation have affected the acquisition of raw materials, and the epidemic has continued to affect manpower, which has also led to delays in the progress of semiconductor factory construction projects. This phenomenon and equipment delivery delays have simultaneously affected various wafer generations. The factory’s production expansion plan in 2023 and beyond. However, since the beginning of this year, the dividends of the stay-at-home economy have faded, and the demand for consumer electronics such as TVs, smartphones, and PCs has continued to be weak, resulting in high inventory levels of terminal brands. The risk of order revisions has also spread to IC design factories and wafer foundries, causing downward noise in semiconductors. . According to a TrendForce survey, factories currently still rely on adjustments to product mix and reallocation of resources to products that are still in short supply to support capacity utilization rates that generally remain at 95% to the full load level.

 

From the second half of 2022 to 2023, high inflationary pressure may cause global consumer demand to continue to face downward revisions. However, from the supply side, the wafer foundry expansion process is affected by factors such as equipment delivery delays and factory construction delays. The delay has caused the annual growth rate of global foundry production capacity to converge to 8% in 2023. TrendForce believes that under the current market conditions of weak consumer demand, the delay in the production expansion process has eliminated some concerns about oversupply in 2023, but the shortage of some materials and parts that are still in tight supply may be prolonged again. At this time, it is necessary to rely on the wafer foundry's diversified layout of various end applications and product processes to balance the uneven distribution of long and short material resources.